The Shepard Scale

The Shepard Scale

The Mathematical Formula That Explains Why Your Group Is Failing

You don't need to be a math whiz to understand it.

Kit Perez's avatar
Kit Perez
Jun 26, 2025
∙ Paid
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Photo by Diego PH on Unsplash

When a group collapses, you’ll often hear former members offer the same reason:

“We just didn’t have enough people.”

You’ll hear this among current groups too:

“We need more people.”

No, you don’t.

You need discipline, standards, and a hard stop on the recruitment hamster wheel.

Lack of members isn’t the problem; if it were, you wouldn’t be seeing national groups with thousands of members collapsing like a styrofoam cup in a campfire. The real problem is that groups fail to vet, fail to enforce boundaries, and fail to prioritize mission over emotional needs being met. All the bodies in the world won’t fix those problems.

Logic dictates that if your group can't even function in a healthy way at five people, adding five more won’t help. You're just scaling dysfunction at that point, building an even bigger problem and adding more complexity to the dynamics.

But I promised you mathematical proof. So here we go.

John and Jack want to make a group. Right now, the only…

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